Hey everyone, it's been many moons since my last post.
At least it was a winning post : )
Either way, I’ve come out of hibernation and feel more bearish than ever. Too bad I can't talk about it here.
My masters over at http://www.investorsdailyedge.com/ commanded me to use their blog.
Honestly, I don't like the blog as much. But who cares what I think right? It's about you after all.
AND I feel bad that I’ve been depriving you of such amazing stock market advice.
Well, that's only half true...
After making the amazing prediction of the DOW hitting 11,000 (you know, back when it was around 12,500) I decided to take a freakishly long break.
This market is just smoking too much crack for me to pretend to make money in it. But lately I’ve been feeling saucy... saucy enough to start looking for good market plays.
So if you want to see my future blog postings and perhaps marvel at the deadly-accurate market calls then you have to add my new blog to your bookmarks.
http://www.investorsdailyedge.com/Blog.aspx?Id=53
Sadly there is no RSS feed or e-mail update feature. The masters say that’s well on its way. And I hope to the sweet lord that they add a comment feature soon!
I love hearing good debates. In the end I think a blog is all about the back and forth. You get to know me as I am. And I get to know you better.
So here’s to the future,
Charles
So far, the futures are up about 30 points. The Dow nearly closed under 12,000 yesterday, but didn't.
It looks like the bulls are trying to keep the Dow above water.
Look, i wouldnt be shocked to see the market rally for a few days. Hell, I wouldnt be shocked to see the market rally 600 points from here. But should it? I don't think so.
But the market really doesn't care what I think. And that's why i'm going to let the price action dictate my actions.
Needless to say, I think if the Fed runs their mouth about inflation at next weeks rate meeting, the markets will head down on the fear of higher interest rates. The question is whether the market will break under its Februrary lows.
If it does, that would be a shorters fantasy.
Man, the markets have just been tanking over and over again.
It's either inflation, or slower growth, or earnings - it seems there's always a good reason why the market will drop.
Now the Dow Jones is set to test its February lows. I say if it breaks under 12,000 - it should make it down to 11,600.
Whether it gets past there or not is another story completely. So we'll see.
But the truth is, the economic fundamentals suck harder then a Dyson vaccum cleaner. So i wouldnt be shocked to see the market do a slight rally at 11,600, only to fail and move under.
If the market breaks under 11,600, i'm shorting the Dow.
By the way, this blog will soon be moved to our redesigned IDE website (which has blogs).
I'll be posting a link up in the next few weeks. So stay tuned!
Finally - after days of stressing because there were absolutely no good opportunities, I found a few.
First, Aixtron (AIXG). They fell a bunch today on no news. I think in a day or two, they will begin another bounce. Then there's BHP who's fallen yet again today. Once that RSI bleeds oversold, I'm a buyer!
There are a few other opportunities that are close to fruition - and I can't wait for them to be ready.
After all, I need a new motorcycle! And it'd be awesome to pay for it with the proceeds of a few good market plays.
As far as the market goes, it's going crazy. Volatility is ticking much higher (VIX is above its 200-day) and it seems to me that an important safety net is now gone.
You see, most thought we'd have a second half recovery. But thanks to the big pop in unemployment and rising inflation, that thought went right out the window on Friday.
Now what's left to prop up the markets? Well, rate cuts were helpful. But guess what? Bernanke is talking about rate hikes!
The market surely won't like rate hikes in the middle of a recession because it means things would slow down even further.
And now this is a fear that is making the rounds on Wall Street.
We'll see how it all plays out.
